Foresight methodology pdf free

Many of the tools and methods listed below can be found on the shaping tomorrow website. European commission directorategeneral for research and innovation directorate f bioeconomy unit f. The content block is about 3035 minutes, and we will then have time for questions and discussion. The paper aims to provide a summary of foresight methodologies rather than a detailed analysis of the methodologies themselves. Foresight workshop how to guide foresight workshop how. This guide assists organizations in preparing for and conducting a twohour foresight workshop utilizing scenario planning techniques.

To effectively spot new trends, strategic foresight teams need to have a much wider range of information sources than. But, most people have learned these skills from others. Quantitative methods numerical data, of many types, are useful in thinking about longerterm developments, and to a certain extent they can be useful ways of presenting foresight results, too. Unido regional initiative on technology foresight for central and eastern europe cee and the newly independent states nis aims. Solution the white spots, paper mockups, and change path methods turn your idea into a tangible artifact and plan. The methodology from the playbook was well defined, covering all major dimensions of foresight and vision strategy, and well supported with examples. Foresight usually draws on both quantitative and qualitative approaches as they provide distinctive inputs to the analysis of the problems being dealt with. This methodology is articulated around the identification and analysis of key. The playbook is packed with multiple methods and techniques, stepbystep instructions, tips, examples, case studies, and more. The foresight of futurology is also known as strategic foresight. The primary task of foresight methods is to make this search process fruitful.

The main objective of the workshop was to frame the mica foresight methodology recommendations in a minerals. Concepts and practice pime series on research and innovation policy luke georghiou, jennifer cassingena harper, michael keenan, ian miles, rafael popper, luke georghiou, jennifer cassingena harper, michael keenan, ian miles, rafael popper on. For that reason, the future today institutes research and tools are now open source and licensed under a creative commons attribution noncommercialsharealike 4. In this publication, foresight is defined a systematic, future oriented, analytical and interactive process that partly contributes to shared visions concerning long term developments within science, technology.

Psychological studies of policy decisions and fiascoes, irving janis 1982. Applying foresight methods to traditional planning processes represents an opportunity for. Scenario managementan approach for strategic foresight. Foresight psychology, ability to predict or plan for the future, often termed vision in managementbusiness context another name for precognition. The module dedicated to technology foresight practitioners. Issues paper on strategic foresight for the post2015. This paper outlines the strategy process in organisations, and the use of foresight methodologies in the strategic thinking stage of this process. Foresight needs to be properly embedded into decisionmaking, both in process terms along the different phases of decisionmaking and in structuralorganisational terms as a network across policy areas. This online book is the most comprehensive intro to general futures thinking and professional foresight practice available on the web. Change drivers are typically characterised as the political, economic, societal, technological, wider global context. The book is written in understandable, accessible language. There are many frameworks for using foresight methods in organisational strategy. The authors show how ci professionals can develop corporate, industry, market, and global scenarios. For more than 15 years, foresight has been codifying a flexible methodology that could be applied to the many different types of projects.

Before me lectured one of the world health organization who chief officers, who presented a very interesting graph what he showed was basically that life expectancy is expected to keep on rising all over the world, so that by the year 2100 its going to reach. The second section discusses what constitutes a theory and how to present one. Foresight work is therefore an everyday issue of life that pretty well every person on the planet engages in at some level or another. It is hoped that the publication can function as a general introduction to foresight and foresight methods. Recent developments in foresight methodologies maria. This section presents one of the most common frameworks for classifying foresight methods. The scenarios provide a tool with which to discuss alternative views of the future. To be the best big picture guide to 21st century foresight. We have spent nearly two decades researching, modeling, testing. The approach incorporates traditional design processes along with other elements that distinguish it, such as systems thinking. Application of foresight methodologies in the nanotechnology. Framing 2 help the organization identify and solve the right problems 1.

The framework is focused on types of techniques qualitative, quantitative and semiquantitative. Strategic foresight advice should be broadly based, and wherever possible backed up by empirical evidence, so that it can be contested and debated by others in the policy domain. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in. Europes research, innovation and higher education systems. Exploring futures the houston way andy hines, peter c. Part of our mission at the future today institute is to develop a culture of foresight in every organization. There is a variety of methods that can be used in foresight, each producing different results. Managing a foresight project means to apply the same rules of good project management as for any other project. Foresight includes understanding the relevant recent past. A few years ago i lectured in a european workshop about global risks. Achieving best practices in the foresight field, journal of futures studies, may 2009, 4. Bridging qualitative and quantitative methods in foresight matthias k. Foresight is a very evocative label for the rise to prominence of participative methods and longterm strategic futures techniques, in the wake of more traditional ways of informing policy planning.

Strategic foresight is most commonly used by strategic planning units of national governments. Towards scientific foresight in the european parliament. Posts about foresight methodologies written by roey tzezana. The handbook will be vital reading for policymakers considering, commissioning, or using foresight. Futures research methodology, millennium project futures concepts and powerful ideas, foresight international 1996 note.

Look up foresight, foresee, or foreseeing in wiktionary, the free dictionary foresight may refer to. Foresight definition of foresight by the free dictionary. This paper suggests new technology foresight approach named foresight periscope model fpm. Foresight is a university human capacity which allows people to think ahead and consider, model, create and respond to, future eventualities foresight international, 2006.

Scenario building is a wellestablished foresight methodology 11, 12. A click on that and ask questions as they occur to you ill. Mar 18, 20 the paper is a revised and developed version of a previously published paper by saritas, ozcan, systemic foresight methodology at the forth international seville conference on futureoriented technology analysis fta, fta and grand societal challenges shaping and driving structural and systemic transformations, s eville, 12 m ay 2011. Ultimately though, foresight is used to develop a view of the future relevant to your organisations context to inform decision making today. This draft issues paper has been prepared by the unctad secretariat1, as a contribution to the work. Workshop participants included mica project partners and a number of external experts on both foresight and raw materials. The article starts with various definitions of technology foresight from the literature and new definition is given by the authors. Building on the work of the commission on these priority themes, this paper applies a strategic foresight lens to the digital developments mentioned. Agile organizations use what they can see on, and over, the horizon to determine their way forward, avoiding risks, or using them to advantage, and seizing opportunities ahead of less farsighted rivals. The futures toolkit page 4 what to look for identifying and mapping change drivers the key trends and factors shaping the long term development of the policy area sits at the core of most futures and foresight work. Popper, 2008 in foresight journal volume 10, issue 6 pp. All this is supplemented by military means of a concealed character, including carrying out actions of. The european foresight monitoring network did a nice survey of foresight methods used around the world in their global foresight outlook pdf 2007. The model was also introduced at the 2008 meeting of the world future society and at the 2008 army war college proteus foresight conference.

The focus of applied methods of conflict has altered in the direction of the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other nonmilitary measuresapplied in coordination with the protest potential of the population. The training module is intended to upgrade knowledge of the industrial policy and technology foresight practitioners from. This fascinating handbook will appeal equally to those wishing to apply foresight to their policy or strategymaking activities, and to those studying the theory and practice of foresight. Foresight is a process which involves intense iterative periods of open reflection, networking, consultation and discussion, leading to the joint refining of future visions and the common ownership of strategies. This category includes all methods used to identify and assess emerging technological, social, economic and political trends. This book examines developments in foresight methodologies and relates in its greater part to the work done in the context of the costa22 network of the eu on foresight methodologies.

Predicting by foresight methods is particularly useful in the first part of this phase. Determining an ideal sme and ecosystem for internationalization a twostep exercise in developing foresight scenarios 1. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in practice. Elements of widely accepted foresight definitions are analyzed and depicted on a table according to the number of references in the definitions. The table in chapter 3 displays more than thirty foresight methods. An overview of foresight methods linkedin slideshare. Hazard related to food safety as defined by codex alimentarius, a hazard is a biological, chemical or physical agent in, or condition of, food with the potential to cause an adverse health effect. Fore sight surveying, short for fore sight reading, a reading from a leveling staff when using a surveyors level. This is maree conway, and welcome to this webinar today which will provide you with an overview of foresight methods. First you to learn how to draw a map of the potential future business landscape. Here i also provide short definitions for 33 foresight methods.

The curriculum includes general innovation theories, foresight methodology, value chain disruption and strategy. Our definition strategic foresight is a set of methods, tools, technologies and actions, which provide an. This is why case studies and benchmarking arent terribly useful in an integral sense, foresight methods and processes are in the right. This type of a workshop can involve a small team or a. Futuretelling methods identify your future customers in terms of macro, micro, and narrative views. For more detail about the model, see terry grim, foresight maturity model fmm. The approach incorporates traditional design processes along with other elements that distinguish it, such as systems thinking, visual sensemaking, and stakeholder facilitation. The underling ideas of choosing which method, or methods to use was described earlier but the precise choice of the appropriate combination of methods will always be a matter of judgment based on the particular context and nature of the issue being. An overview of foresight methodologies thinking futures. Foresight is a professional practice that supports significant decisions, and as such it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge methodology.

Methodologies of the centre for futures and foresight. The main objective of the workshop was to frame the mica foresight methodology recommendations in a minerals policy context on a 20302050 timescale. Introduction it is generally accepted that a finding is more likely to be accepted as a fact, if it is quantified. The chapter provides a comprehensive and structured overview starting with the foresight process and common practices in the sequence of pre foresight, recruitment, generation, action and renewal.

The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Many quantitative methods are used in foresight, for providing an evidence base for futures thinking, or supplying forecasting tools themselves like trend extrapolation. By using the methods, our teams identified possible opportunity areas more quickly and systematically. Introduction framework foresightis a methodforcarryingoutforesight projectsdeveloped attheuniversity ofhouston. Methods measuring variables and applying statistical analyses, using or generating hopefully reliable and valid data e. Foresight university 4u is a professional learning and development company, run by academicallytrained foresight practitioners, entrepreneurs, technologists, and creatives. Bishop graduate program in futures studies, university of houston, 4800 calhoun road, 110 cameron building, houston, tx 772046020, usa 1. The third section reflects on the definition of theory as applied to. It then provides a broad overview of the development of foresight methodologies over time, and briefly discusses different types of methodologies that can be used in organisations. Intra foresight methodology by mra intra project team. Theory of and within foresight what does a theory of.

The scenarios, to be useful for answering the question on future preparedness of the eu legal framework on food safety and. This requires a rapid response capability, which can be delivered through the development of concurrent design foresight. All available for free download whether innovation means finding the next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets, this playbook addresses two essential topics. Foresight methodology research explorer the university of. This paper proposes a technology foresight methodology based on the development of a complementary approach to the delphi method that enables the identification of strategic technological. We offer highquality training in personal, organizational, global, societal and universal full spectrum foresight and leadership, we help leaders and entrepreneurs maximize their positive career impact, and we. As methodological choices are crucial and complex they deserve deeper focus and a dedicated section. The ability or action of imagining or anticipating what might happen in the future. Scientific foresight topic is based upon emerging technologyscientific questions with societal relevance. A methodology first practiced by the military, classical applications usually focus on possible future trends and developments horizon scan of one crucial driver, such as the future of technological. Foresight is, however, usually an unconscious thinking process we all. The report offers a systematic overview of types of foresight methods. The foresight guide a big picture guide to the 21st century.

The aim is also to spread knowledge of foresight methods and contribute to the knowledge base in relation to future foresights in denmark. Chapter 5 is an exposition of how foresight methods can possibly be used in the frontend phase of project planning. Manchester business school has a concise overview of thirtythree foresight methods, divided into qualitative, semiquantitative, and quantitative categories. Guidelines for strategic foresight edited by andy hines and peter bishop is the essential handbook for every aspiring analyst and, students of strategic foresight. The survey tells from which kind of sources each method elicits judgmental data, and it is noted how each foresight method processes this judgmental. Methodology is an operational framework within whichdata are placed so that their meaning may be seen more clearly leedy, 1997. An overview of foresight methodologies maree conway thinking futures introduction foresight is a university human capacity which allows people to think ahead and consider, model, create and respond to, future eventualities foresight international, 2006. This chapter uses different approaches to reflect on a variety of issues concerning foresight methodology. The exploration of the future, ed cornish 2005 global foresight outlook, rafael popper et al. Aug 22, 20 the key element in whether foresight processes will be successful is the thinking capacity of the people in an organisation and recognition that the future is an essential element in strategy formulation.